Oyster Bay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

322
FXUS61 KOKX 041153
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
753 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated risk of fire spread across much of the region on Monday,
and further west across the area on Tuesday.

2) Moderating temps today, even warmer Tuesday with temps rising to
10 to 15 degrees above seasonable.

3) A strong frontal system will bring rain Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with latest model trends showing less rain overall now on
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The combination of drying fine fuels, southwest wind gusts between
25 and 30 mph, and relative humidity values between mainly 30 and 35
percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire spread for
southern CT, the Lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and mainly
northern and western portions of Long Island for today. The risk of
fire spread on Tuesday at this time looks to be confined to mainly
the western half of the area due to a more southerly component to
sfc winds.

This forecast considers meteorological, fuel, and land conditions
and has been developed in coordination with state fire and land
management officials.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WSW flow regime and plenty of sunshine will begin warming things
up through the course of today with mainly 60s and 70, with cooler
60s being confines to southern and eastern portions of the region,
with lower and middle 70s mainly to the west and northwest. By
tomorrow looks for most locations to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer with
lower and middle 80s across NE NJ, but only lower 60s across far
eastern coastal sections, thus a wide spread in temperatures later
in the afternoon tomorrow with a fair amount of sunshine.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The chances for rain increase across western portions of the area
later Tuesday night as a strong cold front starts to approach from
the west. A steady rainfall is progged by NWP and the AI global
guidance. With the low level flow becoming more southerly right
ahead of the cold front look for the lower portion of the atmosphere
to stabilize, and thus should limit any convective potential. There
may be enough instability above the boundary layer that a rumble or
two of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, but overall expect
essentially a beneficial moderate rainfall region wide. QPF event
totals have decreased some as NWP guidance appears to be progressing
the frontal boundary a bit faster to the east Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Thus, the bulk of the rain takes place Wednesday
afternoon and evening. There remains a chance of rain / showers into
the day Thursday, but PoPs have lowered, especially for further west
across the area. A second wave of low pressure is expected to
develop to the south, but NWP and AI consensus is further to the
south and east with this trailing disturbance. Thus any rain on
Thursday should be lighter in nature with clouds expected to linger
into Thursday evening, with skies now expected to clear later
Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure becomes established offshore through the TAF period.

VFR conditions and general S to SW flow expected through the
TAF period.

Gusty winds today into early this evening with gusts near 20-25 kt.
Sustained winds increase from near 5-10 kts early to near 15 kt this
afternoon into early evening, then subside back to 5-10 kt range
thereafter with gusts subsiding.

A short period of low level wind shear is forecast overnight
into early Tuesday morning with SW winds of near 40 kt at 2kft
AGL.

SW winds increase back to near 10 kt Tuesday morning with gusts
developing again to near 20 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts to near 20-25 kt could be off by 1-3 hours compared to
TAF.

Occasional peak gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon into early
evening.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. SW wind gusts near 20-30 kt. Occasional
peak gusts to 35 kt possible in afternoon. A slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm north and west of NYC terminals late in
the day into early eve. Higher chance of showers north and west
of NYC terminals late at night.

Wednesday: Rain with MVFR or lower at times. SW wind gusts mainly
around 20 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt decreasing to 15-20 kt at night.

Thursday: Showers, eventually tapering off late at night. MVFR or
lower at times. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon
into early eve near NYC terminals.

Friday: Mainly VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at
night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SW SCA winds develop on all waters for the first half of
today, with developing small craft seas on the ocean waters with
combo of 2 ft E and SE swells and building S wind waves. These
conditions should prevail for the most part tonight, and pick up a
more into Tuesday with ocean seas increasing further. A period of
gale force wind gusts are possible very late in the day Tuesday into
the first half of Tuesday night for the ocean and the eastern and
southern bays of LI. Therefore small craft and marginal gale
conditions are expected Tuesday night, and may very well carry into
the day Wednesday.

The cold front passes through Wednesday night with sub advisory
conditions ending from west to east for the non-ocean waters.
However, seas should remain elevated on the ocean and may extend
small craft conditions for portions of the ocean into early Thursday
morning. Sub advisory conditions should prevail for Thursday
afternoon into the first half of Thursday night. Sub advisory
conditions may be short lived, as small craft conditions may return
on Friday on a NW to W wind.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     335-338-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE